Picking football winners is not easy task. With today's access to nearly limitless amounts of information, it has become very easy to get confused with information overload.
Obviously before making your football picks you are going to want to research and handicap your game matchups to look for an edge in the pointspread. However, following the advice of the media or using national news outlets as the top sources of your information could prove to be more harmful than helpful.
Sportsbooks are not stupid. Their number one job is to stay on top of the betting public and take advantage of any trends they see forming the public's perception of teams and games. Once information is made public, sportsbooks will factor it into their odds taking away any perceived advantage you may have thought you had. The books know the average bettors make their football picks based off this nationally circulated news - weekly sports magazines and 24-hour sports new channels. While it is still important to be aware of the what is going on in the sports world before making football picks, it is just as vital to be able to understand how much of an impact certain information has already had on a game's odds.
So many bettors lose their football picks because they follow public information and trends, which puts them into dangerous territory. The sportsbooks have already adjusted their lines based on this public information (and perception), so by following that path, you will be forced to pay too much to play these teams and rarely find any value.
The point here is not to stop researching your team, but rather do it smarter with an eye for how that public information will be used by the sportsbooks to price and adjust their games' lines. If you can put this information into proper perspective, you will be able to find value and these otherwise over-adjusted lines will become more apparent. Of course this is easier said than done as there is no magic formula to pull this off - it is more of an art than a science. If you can hone this skill, you will be on your way to winning many more of your football picks.