NFC West: Part II
San Francisco 49ers: Prediction Over 5.5 Wins - Unlike the Rams and Seahawks who will have all their offensive personnel returning, San Francisco will start the season with a completely new look and changes at all three skill positions. Gone are (QB) Jeff Garcia, (RB) Garrison Hearst, (WR) Terrell Owens and (WR) Tai Streets. In their places the 49ers will be going with (QB) Tim Rattay, (RB) Kevan Barlow and a group of relative unknowns at the receiver position, including second-year (WR) Brandon Lloyd, third-year (WR) Cedric Wilson and rookie (WR) Rashaun Woods drafted in the first-round out of Oklahoma State.
Kevan Barlow, who took over the starting running back job at the end of last season, should be the bright spot on offense. Barlow looked great at times in 2003, rushing for over 1,000 yards in just 201 carries for a 5.1 average. Besides Barlow, the rest of the offense is a big question mark with little experience. Tim Rattay did complete 61% of his passes last year, but he has just 3 career NFL starts, so who knows how long he can hold up, especially coming back from off-season groin surgery. If Rattay can’t go the 49ers will look to second-year (QB) Ken Dorsey who has never taken a snap in the NFL. Cedrick Wilson will be the leading receiver returning with only 35 catches last year, so to add experience, San Francisco went out and signed veteran (WR) Curtis Conway. The 49ers will get (TE) Eric Johnson back after missing the entire 2003 season with injury. Johnson had 76 receptions in his first 2 years, so his presence should make a difference.
While the offense is up in the air, the defense should once again be sound and will truly determine how the team finishes. (LB) Julian Peterson, the heart of the defense, led this unit in sacks and finished second in tackles last season. Currently, Peterson is holding out, but it’s likely that he will return to the team in time for their first game of the year. With a solid front seven, the 49ers should play tough enough to keep themselves in many games. Expect 2004 to be a rebuilding year, as the team should take a step backwards. However, if the offense can put things together, and they continue to play well at home, the 49ers could post a 6 win season.
Arizona Cardinals: Prediction Under 5 Wins - Do you remember that last second comeback victory in the final week of the season against Minnesota, which eliminated the Vikings from the playoffs? Well, that one play along with rookie sensation Anquan Boldin were perhaps the only two highlights in the desert last year. New head coach Dennis Green will certainly have his work cut out for him to turn around a franchise that has compiled just 25 wins over the last 5 years.
The Cardinals finished last season as the worst offensive unit in points scored – averaging just 14.4 per game. Arizona will head into 2004 with third-year (QB) Josh McCowan leading an offense with a ton of potential, but little experience. McCowan (having just 3 NFL starts) will again lineup along side offensive rookie of the year (WR) Anquan Boldin, second-year (WR) Bryant Johnson, first-round pick (WR) Larry Fitzgerald, & (RB) Marcel Shipp. However, serious pre-season injuries to Boldin and Shipp have cost the Cardinals big time. Shipp, the team’s rushing leader went down with a broken leg & will be out of action for at least the 8 weeks, while arthroscopy knee surgery will keep Boldin off the field until at least October. The Cardinals will be forced to look to former All-Pro Emmitt Smith to pick up the slack and replace Shipp at the start of the season, but the absence of Boldin, the team’s offensive leader, will certain hurt a roster already light on depth at the skill positions.
If defense wins games, then the Cardinals are going to be in for another long and disappointing season. This team finished near the bottom of the league in almost every defensive category last year, and not surprisingly, allowed the most points against –28.3 per game. The Cardinals brought in free-agent (DE) Bertrand Berry in an attempt to bolster their pass rush, which was ranked 30th in the league in 2003. Last season Berry had 11.5 sacks for Denver, which were 8.5 more than any other Cardinal player. Arizona also tried to improve their defense through the draft by selecting (LB) Karlos Dansby from Auburn in the second-round & (DT) Darnell Dockett from Florida State in the third- round. Even with (LB) Ray Thompson (tied for team lead in sacks), (LB) Ronald McKinnon (leader in tackles), & (FS) Dexter Jackson (leader in interceptions), the Cardinals should continue to struggle keeping opponents out of the end zone.
The deck seems to be stacked against Arizona already in 2004. Besides suffering injuries to key players and having a lack of leadership and experience, the Cardinals are also the proud owners of the league’s second most difficult schedule. Having to face the Rams and Patriots in the first two weeks of the season, without their top players in the lineup, could spell trouble for an Arizona club trying to climb its way out of the proverbial basement. If not for that last second victory in the final week of the season, the Cardinals would have managed only 3 wins last year. It’s hard to expect much more in 2004 from a team that is already starting behind the 8-ball.
Click Here for Part I of our NFC West Preview featuring the Seattle Seahawks & St. Louis Rams.
Click Here for our NFC East Preview.
Look for the NFC North & South Previews shortly.