Prime Sports Report
Issue #501
© PrimeSportsPicks.com
Understanding Key Numbers and Why They’re Important
While there has been much written about the concept of key numbers, often times the explanation is complex and confusing. Here’s our attempt at simplifying this important topic.
Very simply, key numbers are the most frequently occurring margins of victory in a particular sport. In other words, key numbers are the number of points that the winner of a game will most often beat its opponent. If you looked at the margin of victory in each game and ranked these numbers in order from the most frequent to least frequent, the key numbers would be those top few that occur most often.
Why are key numbers so important? Key numbers are important because they tell us what the most likely outcomes for the games in a particular sport are going to be. Since many sports are measured against a pointspread, wouldn’t it be helpful to know how often a team wins by a certain number of points? Key numbers provide the answer to this question. In Football, key numbers play a significant role because of the nature of scoring (3 points for a field goal and 7 points for the touchdown and PAT). The rest of this article will focus on how understanding key numbers can help you in your Football handicapping.
The chart below highlights the key numbers in the NFL over the last few seasons. Believe it or not these same key numbers have remained the most frequent margins of victory over the years and are very consistent over time.
Frequency Chart
Margins of Victory for 3 Years of NFL Games |
|---|
| Margin of Victory | Rate of Occurrence %
(rounded) |
|---|
| 1 point | 4% |
| 3 points | 17% |
| 4 points | 4% |
| 6 points | 5% |
| 7 points | 10% |
| 10 points | 5.5% |
| 13 points | 4% |
| 14 points | 4% |
As you can see, teams in the NFL are more likely to win a game by 3 or 7 points than any other number. Therefore, these are the most important key numbers for you to remember and consider when analyzing a matchup. Understand that the people creating the pointspreads (‘lines’) for each game are keenly aware of these key numbers too and they are cautious when setting or moving their lines for a game around these numbers. Here’s an example to help explain.
New Orleans is playing at Atlanta and the line opens at Atlanta -2.5. Heavy money starts to come in on Atlanta so the line is moved to Atlanta -3, in an effort to make New Orleans more attractive. Money keeps pouring in on Atlanta, so the line is again moved to Atlanta -3.5. Finally, some New Orleans’ money comes in and the line closes at Atlanta -3.5. In this situation, if the game ended with Atlanta winning by exactly 3 points (which is a likely outcome), everyone who had either Atlanta -2.5 or New Orleans +3.5 would be a winner, and the house would get caught in the middle (paying significant winners on both sides of the wager). Because of the risks involved with getting caught in the middle, the house generally will avoid putting itself in these types of situations and is cautious when moving a number on, off or around a key numbers.
How to Use this Information about Key Numbers
Having a good grasp of key numbers can make you a smarter player and help you find (‘shop’) for lines that will increase your odds of winning. While you should always be looking for the most favorable lines possible, you can now search for opportunities to get a line around a key number so if it hits, you will win. For example, if you like the underdog in a game and you find a line of +7, you know that there is a good chance that the game will push. So you should try to find a line where you can get +7.5 because that extra ½ point will make you a winner if the game hits on the key number 7. The same goes for favorites. If you like a team at -3, but you can only find lines giving -3.5, you should be aware that there is almost a 17% chance that the game will be decided by exactly 3 points, which would be a loss.
We hope we have shed some light on a somewhat confusing and misunderstood topic. Please keep these key numbers in mind when you are considering you next play.
Best of luck,
Prime Sports Picks