INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
AFC WILDCARD GAME
JANUARY 3, 2009 8:00 P.M.
Indianapolis goes to San Diego for the second time this year. They won the previous game on a field goal as time expired. A year ago, in the playoffs in Indy, they lost to the Chargers. Both teams are playing well. The Colts (12-4) are riding a 9 game winning streak. The Chargers (8-8) were 4-8 and all but eliminated from the post season when they started playing well, winning all of their last four games. Losing any of them would have cancelled their postseason. Even though the Colts have a better record, they travel to San Diego because the Chargers were AFC West Division Champs. The Colts lost their division title to Tennessee after winning it five years in a row.
INDIANAPOLIS: UP: QB Peyton Manning is back to his Pro-Bowl form. After a rocky 3-4 start, the Colts began to look like the team of past seasons. They finished with an NFL record sixth straight season of at least 12 wins and seven straight playoff appearances. Coach Tony Dungy has guided teams to the playoffs for a record 10 consecutive years. S Bob Sanders is expected to play after sitting out the last game with a swollen knee. S Melvin Bullitt is also expected to play against the Chargers. DOWN: Kickoff team coverage is still a weakness. In the last game of the season they allowed an average of 33.8 yards on returns to Tennessee, with the longest being 50 yards. LB Gary Brackett has not played since Nov. 30 and will not play Saturday. The Colts are only 25 yards per game better than their opponents this year in total offense. The defensive backfield has been decimated with multiple injuries. Rookies are playing a huge role in pass protection.
SAN DIEGO: UP: The Chargers salvaged their season with an impressive run. With three games to go they were three games behind the division leader. The Bronco’s collapse was punctuated by the Chargers as they defeated Denver handily in the final game. RB LaDainian Tomlinson was impressive as he had 96 yards and 3 touchdowns. He sustained a groin sprain, but is expected to be ready for the Colts. QB Philip Rivers had 15 for 20 passing and 2 TDs. DOWN: The Chargers have the worst record of any playoff team this year. Their standard retort is that everybody is 0-0 right now. The rush defense was horrid against Denver, allowing RB Tatum Bell to score TDs of 26 & 37 yards. Their pass defense allowed QB Jay Cutler to throw for 316 yards. Several players were dinged up vs. the Broncos but are expected to play against the Colts.
KEYS TO THE GAME: San Diego’s pass defense will need to be razor sharp against Manning. They will need to put pressure on him and cover the Colt’s receivers at all times. Missed coverage turns into big yards against Indy. Offensively, the Chargers have to protect Rivers against a vicious rush by the Colts. Manning will need to test the Charger defense with a mix of rushing and passing plays. Indy’s special teams cannot miss tackles. The Colts defensive backfield must not miss assignments.
BY THE NUMBERS: The line has the Colts as one point favorites and the O/U at 51.5 points. The Colts are 7-8-1 ATS and 8-8 O/U. The Chargers are 8-8 ATS and 7-7-2 O/U. In playoff games the last three seasons the Colts are 4-1 both SU and ATS while the Chargers are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. As favorites this year Indianapolis is 8-3 SU and 3-7 ATS. As underdogs San Diego is 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS. On paper, the Colts should win this one hands down. In reality, they just barely squeaked one out in San Diego a few weeks ago. If the Chargers defense can pressure Manning this will be a close game.