BALTIMORE RAVENS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
AFC WILDCARD GAME
SUNDAY, JANUARY 4, 2009 1:00 P.M.
The sixth seeded Baltimore Ravens (11-5) will play the third seeded Miami Dolphins (11-5) for the right to advance in the quest for the Super Bowl. Only one #6 seed has ever advanced beyond the second round of playoffs. That was the Pittsburgh Steelers, who went on to win the Super Bowl in the 2005 season. Although seeded higher and playing at home, the Dolphins are 3 point underdogs to the Ravens.
BALTIMORE: UP: With a rookie head coach, John Harbaugh, and a rookie quarterback, Joe Flacco, the Ravens have already achieved beyond all expectations. Flacco had his best game passing last week vs. Jacksonville as he threw for 297 yards at home. But he has been very consistent in road games, where he has thrown TD passes in all but one, and has averaged 211+ yards passing. The Baltimore defense has the 2nd best ranking in the NFL. In those eight road games they allowed opposing offenses only 15 TDs and forced 12 turnovers. DOWN: Only 11 of 36 number six seeds have ever won the first game of the playoffs since the expansion to a 12 team playoff system in 1990. The Ravens must play all road games to reach the Super Bowl. They are 0-1 in the playoffs the last three years. In wildcard games they have a 0-1 record dating back to 1993. RB Ray Rice and CB Fabian Washington missed the last game with injuries, but both should play Sunday.
MIAMI: UP: The Dolphins tied the 1999 Indianapolis Colts for the greatest one-season turnaround. Miami went from 1-15 a year ago to 11-5, thanks in large part to Bill Parcells, the vice-president of football operations. This year Miami and the Giants surpassed the 1990 Giants for fewest turnovers in a season with 13. The 1990 Giants won the Super Bowl. They were led by… Bill Parcells. Miami rookie Head Coach Tony Sparano should be named Coach of the Year, according to pundits. QB Chad Pennington set a new Dolphin standard of 67.4% pass completion, eclipsing Dan Marino’s 59.4%. Pennington’s season was much stronger than Brett Favre’s, who stole his job at the Jets. Chad outplayed Brett in every aspect of the game in their head-to-head matchup last week. DOWN: TE David Martin sustained a blow to the head in the last game vs. the Jets. He will be evaluated day-to-day. Miami is 25th in the NFL in pass defense, allowing opponents nearly 227 yards per game. The rush defense is allowing over 101 yards per game. In the last three years their record against the AFC North is 1-5.
KEYS TO THE GAME: The Ravens will need to persistently attack the porous Miami defensive backfield. Flacco will need to be patient and allow WR Derrick Mason time to get open. RB Le’Ron McClain will need to follow his blockers against the Miami defensive line. The Dolphins offensive line must give Pennington time to exhibit his passing accuracy against the Ravens strong defense. Defensively Miami must win the battle with the Ravens receivers.
BY THE NUMBERS: The Ravens are 12-4 ATS and 10-6 O/U while Miami is 8-8 ATS and 6-10 O/U. As favorites Baltimore is 6-1 both SU and ATS. The Dolphins are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS as underdogs. In road games the Ravens are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS. Miami is 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS at home. If the Ravens defense continues to control the game as it has recently, the Dolphins will be hard pressed to win. But don’t tell that to Chad Pennington.