Prime Sports Report
Issue #701
© PrimeSportsPicks.com
ATS Records & Trend Statistics - Are They Useful?
Against the spread (ATS) records are just reflections of how teams performed against a number generated by sportsbooks & polished by sports bettors. When attempting to predict future performance, past results can be very useful, however ATS records have only so much value. Teams play games to win, not to cover a pointspread. A team’s record straight-up can be very different than its record ATS. This difference shows that there is little connection between overall team talent and ATS success. While some folks live and die by ATS and trend statistics, we feel that this is a dangerous recipe for disaster as these statistics can be quite unreliable.
Some services give out tips of the day centered around trend statistics and ATS records. There are also many websites that try to get you to buy this type of trend data claiming it can give you an edge if you happen to know, for example, that when a home team faces a road team coming off of 3 straight losses by 5 or more points, they have an 89% winning percentage in their next game. But what does this information do for you? It is way too general and assumes too much of the past in the present without regard for current day factors – injuries, personnel changes, team morale, streaks, fatigue, etc.
Using only general trend statistics and ATS records over time makes even less sense considering the state of sports today with free-agency and high turnover on teams’ rosters. If you’re going back even a few years when analyzing a team’s ATS and trend statistics, the information is just too old to be valuable because it’s not the same team in the locker room.
Why are These Types of Information So Popular?
One reason why trend statistics and ATS records are popular is because they are quick and dirty rules that anyone can easily apply to a game situation and come up with an angle for picking one team over another. Think about it, if all you had to do was look at some simple reflection of the past to discover the outcomes of future games, everyone would be winning and sportsbooks would be out of business. I think the point here is clear - using these types of stats does have some value, but don’t be shortsighted and rely solely on this type of information as your one and only source of handicapping. You should always incorporate present day factors into your decision-making before making a play.
How to Use These Statistics to Your Advantage
You can use ATS records to help find pointspread or moneyline value. ATS records provide you with important information about which teams are being over-valued or under-valued by the sportsbooks and also shows you who’s outperforming the public's expectations. Teams that have winning records ATS are generally out performing the public's expectations and playing better than predicted. On the other hand, teams with losing ATS records are doing just the opposite - under performing general expectations. While this information can be valuable to ultimately assist you in determining whether sportsbooks are forcing you to pay a premium to make a play on a particular game, a team's ATS record alone should not be the determining factor in-and-of-itself of whether you finally make such a play because ATS records are such a poor measure of a team’s true ability on the field.
So if you are going to use trend statistics and ATS records in your handicapping, please do so with the understanding that these types of information have some big gaps in them and do not always paint the most accurate picture of a team's current performance. As the old saying goes, “records are made to be broken”; just don’t let yourself go broke banking merely on trend and ATS records.
Best of luck,
Prime Sports Picks